After seven captivating matchweeks, the Champions League league phase comes down to one final night. With just three points separating 5th and 18th, the race for an automatic spot in the knockouts couldn’t be tighter, while at the bottom end, some of Europe’s biggest names are still fighting to avoid a humiliating early exit. Manchester City are on the brink, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are long shots to avoid the playoffs, and unlikely top-eight contenders Lille, Feyenoord, Monaco and Brest battle for position.
All eighteen games kick off at 8 pm (GMT).
The Survival Games
Manchester City (25th, 8pts) vs. Club Brugge (20th, 11pts)
All eyes will be on Manchester tonight as Club Brugge travel to the Etihad in what is a must-win game for Man City. The side that won the competition just two seasons ago sits in 25th position after a disappointing league phase, and while they are favourites in this match, they face a Club Brugge side on a 20-game unbeaten run. In that time they have picked up wins against Villa and Sporting, two teams that have bested City this season. Brugge can afford a draw and might even survive a loss, but they won’t want to leave it to chance.
This game would have seemed a foregone conclusion in years gone by, but with the performances these City fans have been subjected to this season, I don’t think anyone in the stadium tonight would be shell-shocked by another disappointing outing.
Stuttgart (24th,10pts) vs. PSG (22nd, 10pts)
The next potential elimination matchup is between Stuttgart and PSG. A loss puts either side at risk, while a draw likely secures survival for both so it will be interesting to see how the managers approach this.
PSG come into this game off the back of an impressive comeback win against City last week, and with 11 goals in their last four games, they will feel confident they can cause this Stuttgart side problems. They have had one of the tougher draws in the league phase, facing the likes of Arsenal, Atletico Madrid and Bayern, but the quality in this side, who are unbeaten this season in Ligue 1 should be enough to at least come away with a draw.
Juventus (17th, 12pts) vs. Benfica (21st, 10pts)
Juventus take on Benfica in their final game, one without stakes for the home side who can neither be eliminated nor make the top eight. This will be music to the ears of Benfica, who only need a draw to guarantee safety. And if there’s a side you would want to play for a draw, it is surely this Juventus team, who have drawn three of seven in the league phase and 13 of 22 Serie A games this season.
Sporting Lisbon (23rd, 10pts) vs. Bologna (28th, out)
The last real deciding fixture in this scuffle for the playoffs is between Sporting Lisbon and Bologna. Again, a draw would be sufficient for a Sporting side that has looked a step slower as of late, losing all of their last three league phase games since Ruben Amorim’s departure.
Bologna are already out, and though they have only lost once in their last 12 games, with nothing to play for we could see them approach this match without any real urgency. If they do beat Sporting, however, that will put the Portuguese side at the mercy of results elsewhere—not a position they thought they would be in after such a strong start.
Fight for First
Liverpool (1st, 21pts) vs PSV (19th, 11pts)
The high-flying Reds will be looking to cap off a perfect run in the new league format as they travel to face PSV in their final game. Arne Slot has spoken about the low stakes of this final game but Liverpool will still push for the win. There are personal stakes for Slot coming up against his old rivals and the possibility of a 100% record which will make their superiority in European football this season inarguable.
But they won’t have an easy time of it. PSV are top of the Eredivisie and haven’t lost a game at home since the Johan Cruyff shield before the official start of the season. But PSV have nothing to gain from this game, nor any risk of elimination, so the intensity they will come out is hard to predict.
Barcelona (2nd, 18pts) vs Atalanta (7th, 14pts)
If Liverpool do slip up, Barcelona are in a position to pounce. After losing their first game of the league phase they have gone on to win six straight. They are a lock for the top 8, but will surely be hunting for all three points to make a first-place finish possible, even if not probable.
It won’t be a straightforward task though. They face an Atalanta side who are also right in the mix for automatic qualification. Gasparini’s men have been outstanding, with their only European loss a tight game against Real Madrid where they were unlucky to come away with nothing. If they can’t get a result tonight, they will likely fall out of the top eight.
Top Eight Battle Royale
One Foot in the Knockouts
Girona (31st, out) vs Arsenal (3rd, 16pts)
Arsenal’s impressive goal difference all but guarantees them a place in the knockout phase. They travel to Girona, whose disappointing campaign leaves them outside of contention for the playoffs. With two crucial matches against City in the league and Newcastle in their semi-final second leg coming up, Arteta may elect to field a weaker XI but should have enough for an underwhelming Girona side.
Inter (4th, 16pts) vs Monaco (10th, 13pts)
It’s a more significant clash for fourth-place Inter. They would be extremely unfortunate to miss out on the top eight, but it’s a mathematical possibility with their lower goal difference. A draw would be enough for the home side, but the visitors, Monaco, will be hunting for a win to put them in the mix for the top eight.
Outside of their Supercoppa loss to AC Milan, the Nerazurri have been unplayable in recent weeks. They have conceded just one goal in the Champions League campaign, and Monaco will have a tough task on their hands breaking down such a solid outfit. But they shouldn’t be counted out following an impressive league phase which includes wins against Barcelona and Aston Villa.
The top four should hold position, though Inter will feel the least comfortable. After that, just three points separate 5th and 18th in the table, so no one will be playing for draws.
The Kinder Fixtures
RB Salzburg (34th, out) vs. Atlético Madrid (5th, 15pts)
Atletico, who sit in fifth, will fancy their chances to hold position after their clash with RB Salzburg. The third-worst team in this league phase, Salzburg have been on the wrong end of some hammerings, and tonight’s match offers little promise of a change in fortunes.
Dinamo Zagreb (26th, 8pts) vs AC Milan (6th, 15pts)
Milan, just below them, face a Dinamo Zagreb side with the slimmest of hopes for survival. With their -8 goal difference, they need many results to go their way, and would likely also need a convincing win against the Rossoneri which seems unlikely to materialise given the quality of the visitors.
Leverkusen (8th, 13pts) vs Sparta Prague (29th, out)
Leverkusen face Sparta Prague and will be hoping to hold on to that final qualification spot. Getting a two-game break over title rivals Bayern would be massive for Xabi Alonso’s side, and there’s no reason their stellar home form shouldn’t continue against a struggling Sparta Prague.
No Man’s Land
Dortmund (14th, 12pts) vs Shaktar Donetsk (27th, 7pts)
Bayern (15th, 12pts) vs Slovan Bratislava (35th, out)
Both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are in similar positions, in that they both come into this final matchday on poor form. Dortmund have won just one of their last 10 games and have sacked manager Nuri Sahin. Bayern come into this game after an embarrassing 3-0 defeat to Feyenoord last week, the latest in a run of poor results in Europe. While both sides will be favoured in their games tonight, they would need four of the nine teams above them not to win, three of which (Atletico, Milan and Atalanta) can draw and still finish ahead. It’s hard to picture either of the two finishing the night in the top eight.
The Close Clashes
Aston Villa (9th, 13pts) vs. Celtic (18th, 12pts)
Celtic have even less hope of automatic qualification than the Germans above them. Even with a win, they’d need 10 losses from 5th to 17th—calling it a long shot would be generous. But Aston Villa have a better chance. Some favourable results above them could see a win being enough to clinch a place in the knockouts without the need for playoffs, and their unbeaten record at home in Europe will encourage them that they can get the job done.
Brest (13th, 13pts) vs. Real Madrid (16th, 12pts)
Brest has been one of the standout sides in the Champions League this season. Their first campaign in Europe’s top competition has gone better than any Brest fan dared hope. They sit in 13th place, on the same points as 8th place Leverkusen. Without sounding like a broken record, they will need favourable results above them, but a win over the Galacticos could be enough to climb into the top eight.
Real Madrid are a point behind and have no real hope of automatic qualification. Their performances in Europe have been underwhelming this season, but they sit atop La Liga after a recent run of wins, and coming off a hattrick at the weekend, Kylian Mbappe will be looking to continue his long-overdue scoring form against Brest.
Lille (12th, 13pts) vs. Feyenoord (11th, 13pts)
A strong contender for match of the night sees two sides in outstanding European form go head-to-head. Feyenoord have been churning out results against the big sides this season, bolstered by a 3-0 hammering of Bayern Munich, and will fancy their chances of going straight through to the knockouts.
Lille are on the same points and will want to give themselves a chance of qualification after what has been a strong run in the competition following a two-year absence. Both teams will go for it, and goals are almost guaranteed.
If this new Champions League format has proven anything, it’s that nothing is predictable. Every goal, every tackle, and every decision tonight could change the entire landscape of the competition. Outside of the top three, no one contending for a top-eight finish can feel comfortable going into tonight’s fixtures. At the bottom end, the outcome is equally difficult to foresee.
One thing is certain—we’re in for a cracking night of football under the lights.