The Premier League title race has lost its steam, with Liverpool 15 points clear at the summit. But don’t be mistaken, there’s still plenty to play for. With Spurs and United languishing in the bottom half this season, one might have expected less competition for top-flight European football. However, with Man City dipping into contention and teams like Brighton, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest rising to the challenge, we’re on course for one of the closest battles in years.
The latest estimates give the Premier League a 99.9% chance of securing a fifth slot in the Champions League. For the sake of this exercise, we’re going to be rounding up. We’ll look at the teams in contention for those five spots and assess their outlook for the rest of the season.
Arsenal
Fixtures: Chelsea (H), Fulham (H), Everton (A), Brentford (H), Ipswich (A), Crystal Palace (H), Bournemouth (H), Liverpool (A), Newcastle (H), Southampton (A)
The Gunners’ season has not gone as they would have hoped. Given Man City’s struggles, many will have seen this as Arsenal’s title to lose. But with ten games left, they’re closer to tenth place than to league-leading Liverpool.
Injuries have plagued their season, with Saka’s long-term absence putting a dent in their hopes of ending a 21-year title drought. However, they are still firmly in second place, and for them to miss out on a Champion’s League spot would require the wheels falling off completely. Aside from a trip to Anfield, their toughest fixtures will be played at home where they’ve lost just once this season.
Their biggest concern at the moment is a lack of goals, which sounds odd considering they put seven past the Dutch champions last week, but no wins in their last three league games and just one goal scored is cause for concern. With Gabriel Martinelli back in the squad and Bukayo Saka hopefully not far behind, Arsenal should have enough to hold position, but they will have teams snapping at their heels.
Assessment: Always the bridesmaid…
✔
Nottingham Forest
Fixtures: Ipswich (H), Man Utd (H), Aston Villa (A), Everton (H), Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H)
If you had told a Forest fan at the start of the season that they’d be fighting at the top of the table in March, they’d likely have reminded you they weren’t in the Championship anymore. But here they are, third place in England’s top flight with ten games to play. The job done by Nuno and his players has been nothing short of incredible.
Before a recent blip, Forest were the form team in the league, but their lack of experience tussling at this end of the table makes it difficult to label them a lock for qualification. That said, they have the kindest fixtures of any contender, with only two more top-half teams to face: a trip to Villa Park in the coming weeks and a final-day clash with Chelsea.
If Forest can maintain their stellar injury record and approach their league position with the same patience, discipline, and opportunism they show in games, their fans might finally see a return to Europe’s top competition.
Assessment: Dream Reality
✔
Chelsea
Fixtures: Arsenal (A), Spurs (H), Brentford (A), Ipswich (H), Fulham (A), Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Man Utd (H), Nott’m Forest (A)
There were serious discussions about Chelsea’s title hopes when they sat in 2nd before Christmas, but since then, inconsistency has plagued the side. If Cole Palmer’s importance to the team wasn’t obvious before, his recent loss of form has highlighted the team’s dependence on his moments of magic. Despite a seemingly endless supply of attacking options, there has been a dropoff in goals, exacerbated by long-term injuries to Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke.
That being said, they sit in fourth, a far cry from their 11th-place position at this time last year. They will take some encouragement from their track record at the tail end of last season, where they managed to recover from the bottom half to sixth place.
But they have one of the more difficult run-ins, taking on the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle and Forest, with some potential banana skins in trips to Brentford and Fulham sprinkled in there as well. Chelsea haven’t beaten a team in the top half since December, and with just the ninth-best away record this season, there just seem to be too many opportunities for dropped points.
Assessment: A season too soon?
X
Manchester City
Fixtures: Brighton (H), Leicester (H), Man Utd (A), Crystal Palace (H), Everton (A), Aston Villa (H), Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
By their high standards, it has been an abysmal season for Man City. Their mid-season collapse was a spectacle relished by Premier League fans who have had to endure their stranglehold on the league for the last four years. And yet, despite a disastrous season, they somehow find themselves right in the mix for a Champions League spot.
Their form has certainly stabilised in 2025, with their only losses coming at the hands of the top 3. Injury woes have eased slightly, and while they are still light at the back, new signing Khusanov has shaken off his rough start and looks far more solid.
Looking at their run-in, assessing the talent in the squad, and acknowledging historical context, it’s difficult to imagine them missing out on qualification.
Assessment: Bad is still good enough.
✔
Newcastle
Fixtures: Brentford (H), Leicester (A), Man Utd (H), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A), Ipswich (H), Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
Newcastle are a tough one to predict. On their day, they look like one of the best sides in the league. Their midfield trio of Tonali, Joelinton and Guimaraes can dominate any game with their physicality, while their talisman, Alexander Isak—arguably the hottest property in world football right now—is having a stellar campaign.
The Magpies have won six and lost four in their last ten, and they are currently level on points with Man City. The quest for Champions League football carries additional stakes for them, as they could prove essential for them to hold on to their top talent. Of their final ten games, six are at St. James’ Park, but tough trips to Villa, Brighton and Arsenal may be where they come undone.
Eddie Howe’s men will fancy their chances of grabbing a spot in next season’s Champions League, but teams below them will fancy their chances too.
Assessment: Toss of a coin.
?
Brighton
Fixtures: Man City (A), Aston Villa (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (A), West Ham (H), Newcastle (H), Wolves (A), Liverpool (H), Spurs (A)
Over the last ten games, only champions-elect Liverpool and a resurgent Crystal Palace have a better record than Brighton. In the middle of that run was a 7-0 thumping from Nottingham Forest, but the Seagulls bounced back with four wins on the trot. They travel to the Etihad this weekend in a crucial game for table position. Following that, the fixtures look favourable, with Newcastle and Liverpool the only teams above them left to play.
Brighton’s attack is purring as of late, with the likes of Minteh and Mitoma heating up at the perfect time. There have been thirteen different names on the score sheet this campaign. Add to that one of the best midfielders in the league this season in Carlos Baleba and a deceptively strong defense that—excluding that hammering at the City Ground—would be good enough for third best in the league. There’s something about Brighton that screams dark horse.
Assessment: The other side of the coin.
?
Aston Villa
Fixtures: —–, Brighton (A), Nott’m Forest (H), Southampton (A), Newcastle (H), Man City (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Spurs (H), Man Utd (A)
Villa undoubtedly won the January window this year, with new arrivals Asensio, Rashford and Malen all impressing in their first few games. They still have the Champions League and FA Cup to worry about, which may affect their league performance.
Admittedly, they have one of the toughest fixture lists for the remainder of the season and with an extra game played, a push for the top 5 would require big results over the teams ahead of them. But this is the same side that finished in fourth last season. At this point in the campaign, they had conceded just three fewer goals but scored 19 more. Their issue is clear, and in fairness to the club, they have addressed it in the window.
But they have just two wins in their last eight league games; form that won’t keep them at punching distance for long. Could their revitalised forward line give them the nudge needed to get back in contention, or is it too little too late?
Assessment: Go for a trophy.
X
Bournemouth
Fixtures: Brentford (H), Ipswich (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H), Crystal Palace (A), Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Aston Villa (H), Man City (A), Leicester (H)
Bournemouth have been electrifying to watch this season. They have been plagued with injuries to starters all year, yet they have looked like the best iteration of this Iraola side, creating the third most xG in the league this season. The momentum has slowed of late, with just one win in their last five, but they still sit just three points behind Man City.
Iraola—who is putting himself in contention for manager of the season—must be cautious of maintaining the balance of the team as he reintegrates the likes of Evanilson, Sinisterra and soon, Senesi. While their return will be a boost, they’ll need to ensure it doesn’t disrupt the momentum that saw the team go unbeaten for 11 games before their recent dip.
Their next six fixtures are against teams currently below them, and they will be looking to avoid dropping points and stay in the mix til the final weeks, where they go to the Emirates, host Villa, take a difficult but possibly season-defining trip to the Etihad, before facing Leicester on the final day.
Assessment: Best season ever, but no cherry on top.
X
With ten games remaining, the race for Champions League qualification is as tight as it’s ever been. Apart from Arsenal and obviously Liverpool, no team can comfortably say they’ll be in the competition come September—the margins are razor-thin. There’s still plenty to play for and ample room for unexpected twists right up until the final day.